The USDA’s October 2024 Food Price Outlook provides updated forecasts for food prices based on September 2024 data, considering the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). Here's a breakdown of the key findings:
Overall Food Price Trends (2024 and 2025)
- Food-at-home (grocery prices): Expected to rise by 1.2% in 2024, slower than previous years. For 2025, food-at-home prices are forecast to grow by 1.6%.
- Food-away-from-home (restaurant prices): Prices are projected to increase by 4.1% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025.
- All food: Overall food prices are expected to rise by 2.3% in 2024, and by 2.4% in 2025.
Inflation Patterns
- The CPI for all food increased by 0.4% from August to September 2024, and prices were 2.3% higher than a year ago.
- Food-at-home saw a 0.4% increase from August to September, while food-away-from-home prices rose by 0.3% over the same period, reflecting an overall inflation trend in both grocery and dining out prices.
Key Food Categories
- Beef and veal: Prices rose by 4.2% from September 2023 to 2024 and are predicted to rise by 5.5% in 2024 due to tight supplies and high demand.
- Pork: Prices increased by 1.0% in September 2024 and are forecast to rise by 1.7% in 2024.
- Eggs: Prices surged by 39.6% compared to September 2023, largely due to the continued impact of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). Prices are expected to rise by 8.8% in 2024.
- Fish and seafood: Prices dropped by 1.3% compared to the previous year and are predicted to decrease by 1.7% in 2024.
- Fresh fruits: Despite a 2.8% rise in September 2024, prices are expected to see little change for the year, with a 0.1% increase forecast for 2024.
PPI (Producer Price Index) Trends
- Wholesale poultry prices rose by 9.1% in September and are predicted to increase by 3.3% in 2024.
- Farm-level eggs saw a dramatic increase of 124.3% compared to September 2023, and are expected to increase by 39.2% in 2024.
- Farm-level fruit prices rose by 8.3% in September, but a decrease of 4.6% is expected in 2024 due to lower input costs and higher production.
Economic Influences
- A reduction in energy prices (down 6.8% in 2024) and stable agricultural commodity prices have tempered some of the inflationary pressures.
- The Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustments are also likely to influence future food price dynamics.
Conclusion
In 2024, food prices are expected to increase at a slower pace than the past few years, with food-at-home prices rising modestly and food-away-from-home prices seeing a higher increase. Despite the forecasted deceleration in price growth, certain categories—like beef, eggs, and poultry—are likely to experience continued price pressures due to supply chain factors and market conditions.